Civilian nuclear power in the Middle East / Henry Sokolski. Carlisle, Pa. : Strategic Studies Institute, United States Army War College, 2010 ; Halle (Saale) : Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt, 2010
Content
NUCLEAR POWER’S GLOBAL EXPANSION:WEIGHING ITS COSTS AND RISKS
CONTENTS
FOREWORD
OVERVIEW
OVERVIEW
CHAP 1: NUCLEAR POWER, ENERGY MARKETS, AND PROLIFERATION, Sokolski
COSTS
JUSTIFICATIONS
Energy Security.
Abating Carbon Emissions.
Fig 1-3. New Nuclear Power: An Expensive Way to Abate Carbon.
Fig 1-4. Exelon’s View of Carbon Abatement Options for 2010.
A Future Unlike Our Past?
Government Nuclear Power.
CONCERNS
ECONOMICS: A WAY OUT
ENDNOTES - CHAP 1
PART I - NUCLEAR POWER’S ECONOMIC, ENVIRONMENTAL, AND POLITICAL PROSPECTS
CHAP 2: MAPPING NUCLEAR POWER’S FUTURE SPREAD, Squassoni
Fig 2-1. Reactor Capacities, 2010 (GWe).
Fig 2-2. Location of Commercial Uranium Enrichment, 2010.
Fig 2-3. Location of Commercial Reprocessing of Spent Fuel, 2010.
SCENARIO I: “BUSINESS AS USUAL” GROWTH
SCENARIO II: WILDLY OPTIMISTIC GROWTH
Fig. 2-5. Expansion in Global Reactor Capacity According to States' Plans.
Fig 2-6. Proposed New Nuclear States, 2008.
Table 2-1. States with an Interest in Nuclear Power: Status on Nuclear Safety, Security, and Nonproliferation.
SCENARIO III: MAJOR GROWTH FOR CLIMATE CHANGE?
IMPLICATIONS FOR URANIUM ENRICHMENT
Fig 2-8. Enrichment Implications of Reactor Capacity Growth.
Fig 2-9. Illustrative Uranium Enrichment Expansion Out to 2050.
IMPLICATIONS FOR PROLIFERATION
EXPANSION: REAL OR IMAGINED?
ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 2
APPENDIX - MAPPING GLOBAL NUCLEAR ENERGY EXPANSION
CHAP 3: NUCLEAR POWER: CLIMATE FIX OR FOLLY? Lovins, Sheikh, Markevich
UNCOMPETITIVE COSTS
Table 3-1. Escalating U.S. Nuclear Construction Cost Estimates (Including Interest and Real Escalation Unless [Overnight]), 2003–08 (2009–10 Continue the Trend).
Fig 3-1. An Apples-to-Apples Comparison of the Cost of Making and Delivering a New Firm kWh of Electrical Services in the United States Based on Empirical ~2007 Market Costs and Prices.
Noncentral Station Competitors.
WHY THESE COMPARISONS UNDERSTATE THE LACK OF COMPETITIVENESS OF NUCLEAR POWER
UNCOMPETITIVE CO2 DISPLACEMENT
Fig 3-3. Operating CO2 Emitted Per Delivered kWh.
Fig 3-4. Coal-Fired CO2 Emissions Displaced per Dollar Spent on Electrical Services.
QUESTIONABLE RELIABILITY
LARGE SUBSIDIES TO OFFSET HIGH FINANCIAL RISK
THE MICROPOWER REVOLUTION
SMALL IS FAST, LOW-RISK, AND HIGH-RISK IN TOTAL POTENTIAL
SECURITY RISKS
CONCLUSION
ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 3
CHAP 4: THE CREDIT CRUNCH AND NUCLEAR POWER, Thomas
FINANCE
DEREGULATION AND INVESTMENT RISK
GOVERNMENT GUARANTEES
KEYNESIAN STIMULATION
NUCLEAR CONSTRUCTION COSTS
COMPONENT BOTTLENECKS AND SKILLS SHORTAGES
CURRENCY INSTABILITY
TURNKEY CONTRACTS
COMPETITIVENESS AND DEMAND
CONCLUSIONS
ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 4
CHAP 5: TAXPAYER FINANCING FOR NUCLEAR POWER: PRECEDENTS AND CONSEQUENCES, Bradford
INTRODUCTION
SOME CONSEQUENCES OF TARGETED CREDIT SUBSIDIES WHEN TAXPAYERS SHOULDER INVESTORS’ RISKS
NUCLEAR POWER AND FEDERAL CREDIT SUPPORT
THE ORIGINS OF FEDERAL CREDIT SUPPORT IN MAJOR ENERGY AND WATER PROJECTS
DEMAND FORECASTING, CLIMATE SCIENCE, AND MYTHOLOGY
DEVELOPING A FEDERAL ROLE
COMPLEX VARIANTS OF FEDERAL CREDIT ASSISTANCE
The Central Arizona Project.
The Teton Dam.
The Texas Water Project.
President Carter’s Quest for Reform.
NUCLEAR REVIVAL, LOAN GUARANTEES, AND THE LESSONS OF HISTORY
CONCLUSION
ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 5
PART II - EXPANDING NUCLEAR POWER IN EXISTING AND TO FUTURE NUCLEAR STATES
CHAP 6: NUCLEAR POWER MADE IN FRANCE: A MODEL? Schneider
INTRODUCTION
HISTORICAL ASPECTS
DECISIONMAKING
ACCESS TO INFORMATION
CIVIL-MILITARY LINKS
INTERNATIONAL NUCLEAR SAFEGUARDS IN FRANCE
THE TRIPARTITE EURATOM/IAEA/FRANCE AGREEMENT
PLUTONIUM SWAPS
THE PLUTONIUM INDUSTRY
Marcoule.
La Hague.
Fig 6-1. Number of French Reactors Loaded With Mox Fuel, 1987-2007.
Fig 6-2. Steady Growth Of French Separated Plutonium Stocks, 1988-2007.
Economic Costs of Reprocessing in France.
Waste Volumes.
Radiological Impact.
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
OIL, ENERGY DEPENDENCE, AND NUCLEAR POWER
Fig 6-3. Final Energy Supply in France in 2007 (Per Fuel, in Percent).
Fig 6-4. Oil Consumption in France.
Fig 6-5. CO2 Emissions in France 1970-2006 (in Million Tons).
ELECTRIC HEAT AND POWER TRADE
Fig 6-6. Electricity Generating Capacity in France in 2007.
Fig 6-7. Evolution Of French Electricity Consumption, 1990-2007 (by Source, in kWh).
Fig 6-8. French Net Power Exports, 1989-2009.
Fig 6-9. Seasonal Peak Load Explosion in France.
WHAT IF . . .? OPTIMIZED EQUIPMENT AND ECONOMIC EVALUATION
Fig 6-10. Energy Flow Sheet France (in Mtoe).
Fig 6-11. Final Energy Consumption in France in 2007 (By Sector, in Percent).
ENERGY INDEPENDENCE—FROM 50 PERCENT TO 8.5 PERCENT
Fig 6-12. Energy Independence Trends by Energy Source, 1970-2005. (According to the French Ministry of Industry).
Table 6-1. Adjusted Level of French Energy Independence in 2007.
LOW ELECTRICITY PRICES—HIGH ENERGY BILLS
Fig 6-13. The French National Energy Bill, 1970-2009.
Fig 6-14. The French National Energy Bill 1970-2007.
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
LIMITED RISK INSURANCES
DECOMMISSIONING AND WASTE MANAGEMENT COST ASSESSMENT AND FUND MANAGEMENT
BETWEEN PRODUCTIVITY AND NUCLEAR SAFETY—A FRAGILE BALANCE
EPR—EUROPEAN PROBLEM REACTOR?
EROSION AND WORKFORCE CONCERNS
CONCLUSIONS
ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 6
CHAP 7: WHAT WILL BE REQUIRED OF THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT TO BUILD THE NEXT NUCLEAR POWER PLANT? Thomas
INTRODUCTION
WHAT HAS THE GOVERNMENT PROMISED ON SUBSIDIES AND GUARANTEES?
DECOMMISSIONING
WASTE DISPOSAL
WHY IS NUCLEAR POWER ECONOMICALLY RISKY AND DOES THIS MATTER?
WHO ARE THE INTERESTED PARTIES AND WHAT ARE THEIR MOTIVATIONS?
WHAT ARE THE RISKS?
Construction Cost and Time.
Operating Performance.
Operating Costs.
Decommissioning and Waste Disposal Costs.
Insurance and Liability.
A SHORT HISTORY OF THE BRITISH NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAM
OLKILUOTO AND THE U.S. NUCLEAR POWER 2010 PROGRAM
THE U.S. NUCLEAR POWER 2010 PROGRAM
The Program.
Analysis of the Program.
Can Use Of Financial Instruments Overcome the Problem of Risk?
A UK PROGRAM
Corporate Strategies.
Subsidies and Guarantees.
Decommissioning and Waste Disposal Cost.
Construction Costs and Loan Guarantees.
Market Guarantees.
Operating Costs and Reliability.
Regulatory Delays.
Other Issues.
CONCLUSIONS
ENDNOTES – CHAPTER 7
APPENDIX I: DISCOUNTING, COST OF CAPITAL, AND REQUIRED RATE OF RETURN
CHAP 8: A CASE STUDY OF SUBSIDIES TO CALVERT CLIFFS, Koplow
OVERVIEW
NUCLEAR VIABILITY: RELIANT ON SUBSIDIES FOR MORE THAN A HALF-CENTURY
VENTURE OVERVIEW OF CALVERT CLIFFS 3
CORPORATE STRUCTURE
NUCLEAR KEY PARTNERS
SUBSIDIES ARE CENTRAL TO VIABILITY OF CALVERT CLIFFS 3
FEDERAL LOAN GUARANTEES
PRODUCTION TAX CREDITS
ADDITIONAL SUBSIDIES ASSUMED PART OF UNISTAR’S BASELINE COSTS
Accelerated Depreciation.
Accident Liability.
Table 8-4. Insurance Coverage for an Accident at Calvert Cliffs 3.
Table 8-5. Public Subsidies to Calvert Cliffs 3 Approach Private Capital at Risk and Exceed Value of Power Produced.
Management of Long-Lived Nuclear Waste.
Calvert County Property Tax Abatement.
INTEGRATING UNISTAR COST ESTIMATES AND ADDITIONAL SUBSIDY DATA
EVALUATING THE SOCIAL BENEFITS OF CALVERT CLIFFS 3
CONCLUSIONS
ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 8
CHAP 9: NUCLEAR POWER IN SAUDI ARABIA, EGYPT, AND TURKEY: HOW COST EFFECTIVE? Tynan and Stephenson
INTRODUCTION
Fig 9-1. Interest in Nuclear Power in the Middle East and North Africa.
Fig 9-2. Analytical Framework.
Total Potential Capacity.
Relative Cost.
Fig 9-3. Cost Comparison of Natural Gas and Nuclear Generation.
Fig 9-4. Global Survey of Comparative Costs.
Fig 9-5. Cost Curve For Solar Photovoltaic, Concentrating Solar Power, and Wind, 1980-2025.
Energy Security and Location of Source.
Environmental Issues.
Viability.
SAUDI ARABIA
Total Potential Capacity.
Relative Cost.
Energy Security and Location of Energy Sources.
Environmental Impacts.
Conclusions.
EGYPT
Total Potential Capacity.
Natural Gas.
Oil.
Hydro.
Renewables.
Nuclear.
Relative Cost.
Energy Security and Location of Energy Source.
Conclusion.
TURKEY
Total Potential Capacity.
Natural Gas.
Hydro.
Coal.
Renewables.
Nuclear.
Energy Efficiency.
Relative Cost.
Energy Security and Location of Energy Source.
Environmental Impacts.
Conclusions.
CONCLUDING REMARKS
ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 9
CHAP 10: CIVILIAN NUCLEAR POWER IN THE MIDDLE EAST: THE TECHNICAL REQUIREMENTS, Acton and Bowen
A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS
STAFFING REQUIREMENT FOR THE CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATION OF AN NPP
LEGAL AND REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS
ELECTRICAL GRID REQUIREMENTS
WASTE MANAGEMENT AND DECOMMISSIONING REQUIREMENTS
PLANNED NUCLEAR POWER PROGRAMS IN EGYPT, SAUDI ARABIA, AND TURKEY
STAFFING REQUIREMENTS FOR THE CONSTRUCTION OF AN NPP
NATIONAL TRAINING AND RESEARCH INFRASTRUCTURE
LEGAL AND REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS
ELECTRICAL GRID REQUIREMENTS
WASTE MANAGEMENT AND DECOMMISSIONING REQUIREMENTS
CONCLUSION
ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 10
PART III - MAKING AND DISPOSING OF NUCLEAR FUEL
CHAP 11: NUCLEAR FUEL: MYTHS AND REALITIES, Kidd
THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE
THE IMPORTANCE OF NUCLEAR FUEL
Table 11-1. Cost of 1kg of Nuclear Fuel.
Fig 11-2. Fuel as a Share of Electricity Generating Costs, Current Plants in USA.
Fig 11-3. Impact of 50 Percent Increase in Fuel Cost on Generating Cost, New Plants.
URANIUM IS NOT GEOLOGICALLY SCARCE
Plenty of Uranium to Fuel Any Conceivable Nuclear Future.
Additional Supplies of Nuclear Fuel.
LOWER URANIUM USE
Future Nuclear Generating Capacity.
FUTURE NUCLEAR FUEL DEMAND
HISTORICAL URANIUM PRODUCTION
Fig 11-6. Western World Uranium Production and Reactor Requirements in Tons Uranium.
Fig 11-7. Spot Uranium Prices.
Fig 11-8. Reference Case Supply and Uranium Demand Scenarios.
MINING TECHNIQUES AND THE ENVIRONMENT
SECONDARY SUPPLIES STILL IMPORTANT
THE URANIUM MARKET
URANIUM CONVERSION
URANIUM ENRICHMENT
FUEL FABRICATION
NONPROLIFERATION CONCERNS
TRADE AND TRANSPORT RESTRICTIONS
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 11
CHAP 12: THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF REPROCESSING, von Hippel
Table 12-1. Status of Reprocessing in the Countries with Nuclear-Power Reactors.
Fig 12-1. Currently Competing Spent Fuel Management Strategies.
THE FUEL CYCLES
Fig 12-2. Dry-Cask Storage of Older Spent Fuel at a U.S. Nuclear Power Plant.
ECONOMICS OF DOMESTIC REPROCESSING IN FRANCE
Table 12-2. Costs, Inputs, and Outputs for Different Scenarios for the Future of France’s Nuclear Fuel Cycle Based on a Study Done for the Prime Minister in 2000 (20.2x1012 nuclear kWh).
Fig 12-3. Price of Uranium, 1970-2008.
REPROCESSING IN JAPAN
Table 12-3. Estimated Cost of Different Back-End Fuel-Cycle Options in Japan (cents/kWh).
THE DOZEN COUNTRIES THAT DID NOT RENEW THEIR REPROCESSING CONTRACTS
THE CASE OF THE UK
THE CASES OF RUSSIA AND INDIA
Fig 12-4. Recent Plans for Russian Nuclear Power Expansion.
THE CASE OF CHINA
CONCLUSIONS
ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 12
PART IV - USING MARKET ECONOMICS TO PRICE NUCLEAR POWER AND ITS RISKS
CHAP 13: THIRD PARTY INSURANCE: THE NUCLEAR SECTOR’S “SILENT” SUBSIDY IN EUROPE, Froggatt and Carroll
OVERVIEW OF NUCLEAR POWER IN THE EUROPEAN UNION
STATUS OF NUCLEAR INSURANCE REGIMES IN MEMBER STATES OF THE EU
THE ORIGINAL LIABILITY AND COMPENSATION REGIMES
POST-CHERNOBYL REVISIONS TO THE LIABILITY AND COMPENSATION REGIMES
CURRENT STATUS
Fig 13-2. Insurance of Nuclear Reactors.
Table 13-2. Summary of EU Country Participation in International Nuclear Liability Regimes.
IMPACTS ON THE PRIVATE NUCLEAR INSURANCE MARKET
THE COSTS OF SEVERE REACTOR ACCIDENTS
EXTERNALITIES
ADAPTING THE U.S. MODEL TO EUROPE?
ENDNOTES - CHAPTER 13
APPENDIX 1: CONVENTION LIMITATION AMOUNTS
APPENDIX 2: OPERATOR LIABILITY AMOUNTS AND FINANCIAL SECURITY LIMITS IN EU COUNTRIES
CHAP 14: MARKET-BASED NUCLEAR NONPROLIFERATION, Sokolski
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