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Erda, Sait: Industry Analysis: Turkish Banking Dark Before Dawn. New York, 2001 ; Halle (Saale) : Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt, 2001
Inhalt
Executive Summary
Banks Trade Substantially Below Their Franchise Value
The Market Is too Bearish on the Size of Bank Losses
Origins of the Crisis: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?
Crisis Is Likely to Prompt Rapid Consolidation and Boost Profitability
Cost of Crisis Is Likely to Be Massive
Why Buy Now?
How Turkey Differs From Other Crises
Risks
Summary of Recommendations
Valuation
Why WEV Will Not Work in Turkey
Adjusting WEV
Sum-of-the-Parts Analysis: A Component Approach
Ratio Analysis
Understanding the Structure of Bank Profitability
Margin Breakdown
Funding Mix Is Key to Profitability
Cost of Collecting Deposits
Spread Analysis
Is There a Life for Turkish Banks After All?
Brazilian Banks Prosper Under the Real Plan
Turkish Banks: A Brazil in the Making?
Vulnerability of Interest Margins
Consolidation: What It Means for Margins
Extracting Value From Turkish Banks: A Dynamic Model
Determining Potential Value
Strategic Responses: Who Can Go the Distance?
Akbank: Leverage to Acquire, Not to Lend
Garantibank: the Business Needs a Revamp
Isbank: Improving Efficiency Is the Main Strategic Driver
Yapi Kredi Bank: Erasing Conglomerate Discount
Conclusion
Origins of the Crisis: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?
Bank Crises Are a Common Occurrence in Emerging Countries
Structural Problems Diminish Bank Franchise Values
Superior Profitability of Turkish Banks Is More a Myth Than Reality
Turkish Banking System Faces a Chronic Capital Shortfall
The Quality of Bank Capital in Turkey Is Very Poor
Growing Dependence on Foreign Funding
New Frontiers in Banking: Structured Products
How Liabilities Can Appear as Assets
Total Return Swaps
International Perspective: Why Turkey Is Different
Corporate Leverage Is Lower in Turkey
No Lending Boom
Role of Non-Bank Financial Companies Is Insignificant in Turkey
Legal Framework Was Stronger in Turkey
But Turkey Is in a Weaker Fiscal Position
Managing the Crisis: Still Work in Progress
Authorities Were Successful in Containing Systematic Risk
A More Realistic Framework Is Needed to Determine Bank Losses
Restoring the Solvency of the System: an Unfinished Business
Disposing of Failed Banks
A More Comprehensive Resolution Approach Is Needed
Estimating the Cost: an International Perspective
The Cost of Bank Restructuring Is Generally High
Size Does Matter
But a Bad Resolution Strategy Can Be Far More Damaging
The Size of the Problem: Putting the Pieces Together
Hit 1: Losses Due to Maturity Mismatch
Hit Number 2: Impact of the Devaluation
Hit 3: Asset Quality
How Big Is the Capital Shortfall?
Could Banks Grow Out of Their Troubles?
The Fiscal Burden of Restructuring Is High
Debt Capacity Is a Significant Constraint
How the Four Major Turkish Banks Stack Up
Measuring Interest Rate Exposure
Asset Quality
What Happens Next?
Global Experience
Stock Market Performance
Turkish Bank Stocks Likely to Follow a Similar Path to Mexican Bank Stocks
Akbank
Investment Thesis
Positives
Risks
Earnings Outlook
Turkiye Is Bankasi
Share Price Fully Reflects the Strength of Franchise
Investment Thesis
Positives
Risks
Earnings Outlook
T. Garanti Bankasi
Value Story too Big to Ignore
Investment Thesis
Positives
Risks
Earnings Outlook
Yapi Kredi Bank
Deserves a Higher Rating
Investment Thesis
Risks
Earning Outlook