Erda, Sait: Industry Analysis: Turkish Banking Dark Before Dawn. New York, 2001 ; Halle (Saale) : Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Sachsen-Anhalt, 2001
Inhalt
Executive Summary
Banks Trade Substantially Below Their Franchise Value
The Market Is too Bearish on the Size of Bank Losses
Origins of the Crisis: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?
Crisis Is Likely to Prompt Rapid Consolidation and Boost Profitability
Cost of Crisis Is Likely to Be Massive
Why Buy Now?
How Turkey Differs From Other Crises
Risks
Summary of Recommendations
Valuation
Why WEV Will Not Work in Turkey
Adjusting WEV
Sum-of-the-Parts Analysis: A Component Approach
Ratio Analysis
Understanding the Structure of Bank Profitability
Is There a Life for Turkish Banks After All?
Brazilian Banks Prosper Under the Real Plan
Turkish Banks: A Brazil in the Making?
Vulnerability of Interest Margins
Consolidation: What It Means for Margins
Extracting Value From Turkish Banks: A Dynamic Model
Determining Potential Value
Strategic Responses: Who Can Go the Distance?
Akbank: Leverage to Acquire, Not to Lend
Garantibank: the Business Needs a Revamp
Isbank: Improving Efficiency Is the Main Strategic Driver
Yapi Kredi Bank: Erasing Conglomerate Discount
Conclusion
Origins of the Crisis: Bad Luck or Bad Policy?
Structural Problems Diminish Bank Franchise Values
Turkish Banking System Faces a Chronic Capital Shortfall
Growing Dependence on Foreign Funding
New Frontiers in Banking: Structured Products
International Perspective: Why Turkey Is Different
Corporate Leverage Is Lower in Turkey
No Lending Boom
Role of Non-Bank Financial Companies Is Insignificant in Turkey
Legal Framework Was Stronger in Turkey
But Turkey Is in a Weaker Fiscal Position
Managing the Crisis: Still Work in Progress
Authorities Were Successful in Containing Systematic Risk
A More Realistic Framework Is Needed to Determine Bank Losses
Restoring the Solvency of the System: an Unfinished Business
Disposing of Failed Banks
A More Comprehensive Resolution Approach Is Needed
Estimating the Cost: an International Perspective
The Cost of Bank Restructuring Is Generally High
Size Does Matter
But a Bad Resolution Strategy Can Be Far More Damaging
The Size of the Problem: Putting the Pieces Together
Hit 1: Losses Due to Maturity Mismatch
Hit Number 2: Impact of the Devaluation
Hit 3: Asset Quality
How Big Is the Capital Shortfall?
Could Banks Grow Out of Their Troubles?
The Fiscal Burden of Restructuring Is High
Debt Capacity Is a Significant Constraint
How the Four Major Turkish Banks Stack Up
What Happens Next?
Global Experience
Stock Market Performance
Turkish Bank Stocks Likely to Follow a Similar Path to Mexican Bank Stocks
Akbank
Investment Thesis
Turkiye Is Bankasi
Investment Thesis
T. Garanti Bankasi
Investment Thesis
Yapi Kredi Bank
Investment Thesis